Singapore's ultra-luxury segment posted its strongest quarter since Q3 2023 (as of 2025-09), with 69 transactions of S$10 million or more totalling S$1.26 billion — a 25.5% rise in deal count and a 29.3% jump in value quarter-on-quarter. Good Class Bungalow (GCB) activity remained steady as off-market deals and younger ultra-high-net-worth buyers sustained demand. CCR non-landed prices climbed 1.7% QOQ on the back of three landmark new launches, outpacing every other sub-market. The market's verdict: Singapore's trophy-asset tier is decoupling from the broader residential softness.
The third quarter of 2025 unfolded against a backdrop of global macroeconomic caution — the US Federal Reserve held rates steady, regional equity markets were choppy, and Singapore's GDP growth guidance was trimmed to 1–3% for the year. Yet the city-state's ultra-luxury real estate market not only held firm but accelerated, underscoring its role as a safe-haven store of value for Asia-Pacific family offices and wealthy private individuals. Two structural forces drove Q3's outperformance. First, three major Core Central Region new launches — The Robertson Opus, UPPERHOUSE at Orchard Boulevard, and River Green — collectively transacted 835 units in the quarter, injecting fresh inventory at price points above S$3,000 psf and attracting buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines since the April 2023 Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) hike. Second, the GCB market continued its quiet off-market renaissance, with younger buyers under 45 — often tech-sector wealth or second-generation business families — snapping up estates in Nassim, Cluny, and Bukit Timah at record per-square-foot rates.
Understanding this quarter requires a nuanced read of Singapore's two-speed property market. At the mass-market end, new private home sales rose but affordability constraints kept average prices below S$2 million. At the ultra-luxury end (S$10 million+), the buyer pool is effectively ABSD-insulated — foreigners pay 60% ABSD but still transact because no comparable rule-of-law, politically stable jurisdiction in Asia offers the same depth of luxury product. For context and historical price trends, see the Q1 2025 report and Q2 2025 report.
Quarterly snapshot of Singapore's $10M+ property market — GCB landed plus ultra-luxury condos.
URA's Q3 2025 data release (URA Q3 2025 Statistics) confirmed that overall private residential prices rose 0.9% QOQ — the fourth consecutive quarterly gain but modest versus the ultra-luxury sub-segment's performance. Within that headline, the CCR diverged sharply upward:
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private residential price index (all) | Base | +0.9% QOQ | +0.9 pp |
| CCR non-landed price change (QOQ) | +0.6% | +1.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Ultra-luxury transactions (≥S$10M) | 55 | 69 | +25.5% |
| Ultra-luxury total value | S$975M | S$1.26B | +29.3% |
| Average new CCR price psf | S$2,980 | S$3,208 | +7.6% |
The GCB market rounded out the year with 25 transactions in H1 2025 and approximately 36 for the full year at a combined value of S$1.364 billion (average S$2,134 psf). Q3 specifically contributed roughly 11–13 deals based on half-year cadences (Real Estate Asia). The single standout transaction in late 2025 was a Peirce Road estate at S$148 million — the largest landed deal on record. CCR cumulative price appreciation for the first nine months of 2025 hit 5.6%, compared with approximately 2–3% for OCR and RCR over the same period. Explore the full district-level pricing data via our market-segments insight tool and the luxury property map.
[
{
"buyer_type": "Foreign ultra-HNWI (non-PR)",
"action": "ABSD at 60% means a S$15M purchase carries S$9M in stamp duty alone. Structure via a Singapore-incorporated trust or family office entity only after specialist legal advice — the tax treatment is complex and subject to anti-avoidance provisions. Check the <a href=\"/calculator/stamp-duty\">stamp duty calculator</a> to model total acquisition cost before any commitment."
},
{
"buyer_type": "Singapore citizen / PR upgrader targeting CCR",
"action": "Q3's +1.7% CCR price move has pushed entry tickets higher but affordability for PR buyers (5% ABSD, waivable for first property) remains structurally better than for foreigners. Decoupling strategies deserve evaluation when one spouse already owns. Use the <a href=\"/calculator/decoupling\">decoupling calculator</a> and model total debt-servicing ratio with the <a href=\"/calculator/tdsr\">TDSR calculator</a>."
},
{
"buyer_type": "GCB aspirant (landed citizen)",
"action": "With only citizens eligible to purchase GCBs and the 2025 full-year average at S$2,134 psf, a 15,000 sqft plot implies a S$32M+ land cost alone. Model realistic exit timelines using the <a href=\"/calculator/roi\">ROI calculator</a>. Review our district-level <a href=\"/blog/gcb-price-trend-singapore\">GCB price trend analysis</a> and consider that the top Nassim/Cluny micro-cluster commands a 20–30% premium over the broader GCB basket."
},
{
"buyer_type": "Family office / institutional buyer",
"action": "Singapore's total 2025 real estate investment sales hit S$34.1 billion (<a href=\"https://www.marketsgroup.org/news/singapore-real-estate-investment-sales-hit-s34-1bn-in-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Markets Group</a>), affirming the market's depth. Ultra-luxury residential offers inflation hedging and USD/SGD currency diversification. Stack investment scoring via our <a href=\"/insights/score-investment\">investment score insight</a> and filter CCR properties by yield on the <a href=\"/insights/rental-yield\">rental yield insight</a>."
}
]
- Run a full acquisition-cost model before engaging an agent. Use the total cost calculator to include BSD, ABSD, legal fees, and any renovation allowance. For a S$12M new launch, your all-in cost can exceed S$13.5M even for a Singapore citizen.
- Compare new launch vs resale on a per-square-foot basis. Q3 new CCR launches averaged S$3,208 psf; comparable resale units in the same districts transact at S$2,600–S$2,900 psf. Use the side-by-side comparison tool to model holding periods and breakeven timelines.
- Check GCB area profiles before shortlisting plots. Micro-location matters enormously in the GCB market. Review our Cluny Park GCB area profile for one of Singapore's most sought-after clusters. Cross-reference against the URA Master Plan map to verify surrounding land-use zoning.
- Stress-test your financing assumption at SORA + 300bp. Many ultra-luxury buyers arrange bridging finance or drawdown against other assets. The mortgage calculator and refinancing calculator can model scenarios. Singapore's TDSR framework caps total monthly debt obligations at 55% of gross income — confirm headroom before transacting.
- Check district-level transaction velocity. Drill into District 9, District 10, and District 11 data pages for median PSF trends, sales velocity, and comparable recent transactions that anchor your offer price.
Not everyone reads Q3's figures as a green light. Several credible counterarguments deserve honest consideration before buyers commit:
- ABSD remains structurally punitive for foreigners. The 60% ABSD rate introduced in April 2023 hasn't moved. Foreign buyers still account for a meaningful share of ultra-luxury deals — Singapore's attraction as a safe-haven hasn't disappeared — but any diplomatic or policy shift could recalibrate demand instantly. URA's flash estimate release for Q3 noted that the government remains "vigilant" about overheating.
- The new-launch price floor may be unsustainable. UPPERHOUSE and Robertson Opus set record psf benchmarks. If subsequent sell-through rates slow — as has happened in past cycles following a launch rush — resale values at comparable addresses could correct. Buyers of new launches at peak prices face a longer hold period before equity materialises.
- GCB liquidity is structurally thin. With roughly 2,800 GCB plots in existence and typically only 30–40 transactions per year, the market is illiquid by definition. The Peirce Road record may anchor unrealistic seller expectations for 12–18 months, extending average time-on-market for estates outside the Nassim/Cluny prime cluster.
- Global wealth-tax momentum. Several OECD economies are advancing minimum-tax frameworks for billionaires. Singapore has so far resisted, but family offices monitoring this risk may throttle new commitments. The Monetary Authority of Singapore and Ministry of Finance watch these developments closely.
Frequently asked questions
How many ultra-luxury (S$10M+) properties sold in Singapore in Q3 2025?
URA and market data confirm 69 transactions at S$10 million or above in Q3 2025, totalling S$1.26 billion — a 25.5% increase in volume and a 29.3% increase in value compared with Q2 2025. This represents the strongest quarterly showing for the segment since Q3 2023.
What drove CCR property prices up 1.7% in Q3 2025?
Three major new launches — The Robertson Opus, UPPERHOUSE at Orchard Boulevard, and River Green — collectively transacted 835 units, setting new benchmark prices above S$3,000 psf. The influx of high-value transactions in the CCR pulled the quarterly price index reading to +1.7% QOQ, the steepest gain among Singapore's three sub-markets. CCR prices were up a cumulative 5.6% for the first nine months of 2025 (ERA Research).
What ABSD applies to a foreigner buying a S$12M condo in Q3 2025?
Foreigners face a 60% ABSD rate (introduced April 2023) on any residential property purchase in Singapore, regardless of price. On a S$12M purchase, ABSD alone amounts to S$7.2M. On top of that, Buyer's Stamp Duty on S$12M adds approximately S$1.05M (BSD is tiered: 1% on first S$180K, 2% up to S$360K, 3% up to S$1M, 4% up to S$1.5M, 5% up to S$3M, 6% on the remainder). Use the stamp duty calculator for a precise breakdown.
How many GCBs transacted in 2025 and what was the average price psf?
Approximately 36 Good Class Bungalow transactions were recorded for full-year 2025 at a combined value of S$1.364 billion, implying an average of around S$2,134 psf. The second half of 2025 saw 13 properties change hands for S$371 million, with the most notable single transaction — a Peirce Road estate at S$148 million — setting a Singapore landed property record. GCBs are legally restricted to Singapore citizens only.
Is Singapore's ultra-luxury market still outperforming mass-market residential?
Yes, significantly. The overall private residential price index rose just 0.9% in Q3 2025, while the CCR — which houses most ultra-luxury inventory — gained 1.7% and the $10M+ transaction count rose over 25%. This two-speed dynamic reflects the insulation of the ultra-luxury segment from TDSR and affordability constraints that cap growth at the mass-market level. The market-segments insight lets you visualise this divergence across all districts.
What are the key risks for a buyer entering the ultra-luxury market in late 2025?
The four principal risks are: (1) ABSD policy reversal risk — the 60% foreigner rate could move in either direction with little notice; (2) new-launch price sustainability — record psf benchmarks at UPPERHOUSE and Robertson Opus may not hold in the secondary market for 12–18 months; (3) GCB illiquidity — the market sees only 30–40 deals per year, making a quick exit near impossible; and (4) global wealth-tax convergence, which could reduce the incentive for family-office capital to domicile in Singapore. See the counter-position section above for a fuller discussion.
Where can I track real-time ultra-luxury condo prices in the CCR?
ShiokNest's tools offer several entry points: the luxury property map plots high-value transactions by location; the price heatmap shows psf intensity across all districts; and the top movers insight surfaces recent high-value transactions. For individual condo profiles, the condos over S$10M CCR listing gives a curated view of the segment.