$1.5M condo: finding the buy vs rent break-even year
- Purchase price
- $1,500,000
- Monthly rent alternative
- $3,500
- Down payment
- $375,000 (25%) + $44,600 BSD
- Loan
- $1,125,000 at 3.5%, 25yr
- Assumptions
- 3% appreciation | 3% rent growth | 4% investment return on down payment
- Monthly mortgage
- $5,624/month
- Year 1 rent vs buy gap
- $2,124/month cheaper to rent
- Cumulative break-even
- Year 8 — buying cheaper on total cost basis
- Year 10 buy advantage
- +$182,000 ahead vs renting
How to read this: Monthly, renting is $2,124 cheaper. But the chart shows the lines crossing at Year 8 when cumulative total costs are compared. By Year 10, buying is $182,000 cheaper in total. This is because the renter's cumulative rent (growing at 3% p.a.) reaches $487K, while the buyer's cumulative interest + fees amount to $379K net of equity built and appreciation captured. The critical insight is that buying at $1.5M "wins" at a 10-year hold — but only by Year 8. If the buyer needs to sell at Year 5, ...